State Dems See Sarasota As Bellwether

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Expect state Democratic leaders to put significant resources into elections in Sarasota County next year. Scott Arcenuaex, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, told SRQ Daily the county is one of “very few swing counties in this state.”  “There are just five or six counties like Sarasota that are dead-even or maybe a little Republican-leaning,” Arceneaux said. “When we do well in Sarasota, we’re doing well statewide.” In town last week to speak with leaders of the Sarasota County Democratic Party, Arceneaux said state leaders were aware of the super-local Sarasota City Commission elections this year where Democratic candidates swept Republican incumbents out of office.

“We sent a staffer here for about six weeks,” he said. “We make a big effort in off years in races that can make a difference, and we knew if we can continue momentum in the city turning blue, it will eventually reach the county.” The state party has similarly fought hard to grow influence in Jacksonville city elections, and has successfully turned nearby Pinellas County into Democratic-leaning territory.

Republicans don’t question that Sarasota will be competitive this cycle. Joe Gruters, chairman of the Republican Party of Sarasota and vice chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said the region still tilts red, but knows certain candidates can draw significant support. “Sarasota will continue to be a challenge and it will come down to both parties’ ability to bring their own base to show up at polls.” Gruters notes that in 2008, Republican John McCain only got 211 more votes in Sarasota County than Democrat Barack Obama, and Obama that year was the first Democrat to carry Florida in the electoral college since 1996. More notable to Gruters, Republican Connie Mack IV lost the county to incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson in 2012 by 10,000 votes in an election Nelson won in 2012, the same year Republican Mitt Romney carried the presidential race in the county by about 15,000 votes. But Gruters remains confident in his party’s chances next year largely because of a full slate of Republican candidates on the ballot top to bottom.

A good example locally may be the state Senate seat expected to be vacated by Sen. Nancy Detert next year. Already, three major Republicans—all veteran elected officials—are vying for the nomination to succeed the Republican lawmaker. Meanwhile, no Democrat has announced. But that will change, Arceneaux said. “To be clear, I don’t have Senate candidates in any Senate districts around the state,” he noted, citing the extended redistricting battle in the Legislature over political boundaries. The Legislature is expected to go into a special session next month about the Senate map. “No one will run for a seat saying I don’t know what it looks like,” he said. “I appreciate [Republican candidates’] aplomb, but they don’t know where they are running, and this Legislature has proven an ability to drive the plane right into a mountain and go to court.”

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