Since Sarasota County hired a consultant to explore population figures in existing county commission districts, an interesting development occurred. Previous estimates from county staff found less than a 10 percent population difference between the county’s most and least populous district. But the consultant found otherwise.

Why is this important? That 10-percent difference could very well be the difference in justifying a complete redistricting of Sarasota County’s district lines ahead of the 2020 census (and coincidentally an county election where voters newly elect commissioners in single-member districts).

So here is what happened. Sarasota County has gone ahead and hired Kurt Spitzer & Associates to do preliminary work and provide data for County Commissioners to consider before making a decision on early reapportionment. Kurt Spitzer and Associates has subsequently provided draft numbers doing their own population calculations on each district.

Sarasota County staff estimates show the greatest population difference exists between District 2 (79,915 residents) and District 5 (87,525). That’s a difference of 7,610, or 9.52 percent of the smaller district’s population. So yeah, pretty close to 10.

But KSA found slightly different figures. They figure staff underestimated the population by about 2.6 percent in District 5, and that actually 89,824 people live there. Moreover, they figure the county over-estimated in District 2, and only 79,590 actually live in that district. That means there’s a difference of 12.89 percent from the largest to smallest districts.

Now to be clear, there’s no evidence there’s anything close to wrongdoing here. One would expect any consultant to find different population figures through any method used. Part of the issue with doing redistricting in the year 2019 is that you have to work with estimates, and ones build with a higher level of speculation than at any other time. There’s only one time when the government goes door to door to get as accurate a count as possible of each and every person living in the country, and that’s during the decennial U.S. Census, which happens next year.

I asked Sarasota County about the difference in techniques and heard this back from the county.

“Kurt Spitzer and Associates will present their final data to the BCC no later than Aug. 28, per the contract,” said county spokeswoman Brianne Grant. “Data points found in the draft population counts may differ due to variances in the methodologies used, total data points collected and anticipated fluctuations in community growth. Kurt Spitzer and Associates was selected as the consultant for redistricting data based on their previous work with redistricting efforts in other jurisdictions.”

Again, that is all entirely reasonable.

But the tiniest shift in these numbers will surely fan suspicions at the local level. "The Commission has gone data shopping because their original numbers did not support their objective of a pre-2020 Census redraw," suggests political activist Gabriel Hament.

The county commission’s objective when it draws is to keep districts at worst within 10 percent of other in population. They typically try to get much closer, considering they want those district lines to stand for a decade. The idea Commissioner Charles Hines represents almost 13 percent more constituents than Commissioner Christian Ziegler rightfully sounds upsetting.

It’s been pointed out the county redistricted every other year through the 1980s to balance districts, though that only impacted residency rules for candidates when all seats were decided in county-wide votes. That changes with next fall’s races.

But it’s only this new set of numbers that says the districts are that out of whack.

The weird thing is KSA’s guess for the entire county is only 0.3 percent different than the county. That the paid consultant found such a significant difference in the largest district while underestimating populations elsewhere will only fuel outrage.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor of SRQ Media Group.