Time To Test Run Election Reform

Under The Hood

Two of the most landscape-disrupting measures on the Sarasota ballot in years go for their first true test drive in 10 days. Political observers have already seen some of the consequences of moving Sarasota’s city elections to November and changing to single-member district elections for county commission.

It will be difficult to tell immediately from the outcomes of the Aug. 18 election what impact these changes will have had, though all of us armchair pundits will likely guess, and I predict at least one as-yet-to-be-determined election loser will pin the blame for their loss on an unfair change to the local politic. For me, I’ve always felt campaigns have to work within the rules and boundaries they are given, and by definition the candidates who emerge from this process as winners will be deserved ones.

Granted, I’ve written quite a bit about the unfairness of county commissioners redrawing lines ahead of the census. Commissioner Mike Moran will be the only candidate on the primary ballot who arguably changed the boundaries literally to his advantage. But even in that situation, there’s no guarantees the county commission’s brazen actions will bring a primary win, or that leaving lines where they were in 2018 would have ensured a loss. And the commissioners who changed the lines also must contend with the consequences of their own controversial decision.

Regardless, heading into Aug. 18, every candidate has for months known the electorate they must woo. And there’s bigger, more unexpected challenges on the election trail, most obviously the pandemic, that nobody could foresee. Ask candidates knocking on doors so they can engage voters from 10 feet away with masks on their faces. Or ask campaigns confined to couches and campaigning by webcame because they are unable to risk traditional canvassing.

But what changes have we seen so far as a result of changes mechanics in elections? For candidates running for a downballot City Commission race in Sarasota, there has been as great a competition for headline space as ever. That said, candidate forums conducted on Zoom allowed a greater reach than could be normally expected. Any civic group hosting a local election forum dare not dream of hundreds of unexpected guests showing up in some community room to see candidates snipe into microphones in person.

Incumbent District 2 Commissioner Liz Alpert raised $28,695 for her campaign through the last reporting period. Before the first election in March 2015 she had raised around $22,000. Opponents like Terry Turner and Joe Barbetta raised $33,898 and $25,279 respectively. Those are the best known candidates but who knows how differently voters behave with an election at the bottom of a ballot with School Board members and a hot state House primary attracting voters from a single party. Maybe a candidate like Don Patterson ( who reported $75,000 and counting), Martin Hyde ($33,400) or Jerry Wells ($14,065) will still make the top two and move on to November.

As for the county races, one might expect less money to go to district level races. Moran has raised $50,987, which indeed is less than the roughly $71,000 he raised before the August primary four years ago. GOP primary opponent Mike Hutchinson through July this year raised $8,075.

In a District 5 Republican primary for an open seat, Ron Cutsinger raised $66,311 and Chris Hanks raised $21,480. The test this month may be whether it’s possible to stretch those dollars to be more competitive.

Most likely whoever prevails in each of these contests will have more work ahead in November before they can actually claim victory and take office. The truth is, how the winners govern in the coming term will be what determines if these changes in our election systems were for the better or worse.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ Media and the columnist who writes the biweekly column "Under the Hood."

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