If anyone thought the 2021 Legislative Session was as partisan as Tallahassee can get, they obviously haven’t paid attention during a redistricting year.

Florida just last month received the first bit of data about U.S. Census numbers, learning Florida will pick up just one Congressional seat this decade; most people expected tow or three. What’s that mean for Sarasota and Manatee counties? Preliminarily, one would guess there will be a little less disruption, as more districts means more squeezing in strange places. Most expect a new district to land in Central Florida. Had a second seat materialized, it could have been between Tampa and Fort Myers.

But the region today is represented by two Republican Congressmen, Vern Buchanan and Greg Steube. The population here hasn’t exploded in a way that merits more, and since both districts are relatively safe Republican holds (yes, including Buchanan’s), I don’t anticipate major changes. My guess is Buchanan would happily shave the northernmost Hillsborough County portion of his district away to get some of Sarasota back, and he has enough friends/flesh and blood in the Legislature to make that happen. But Steube, who lives in Sarasota as well, also wants to keep a good chunk of the area.

We won’t know for sure what may happen until September when more geographically specific data comes out. That’s when the carving knives come out, and the legal definitions of gerrymandering will be explored. My guess is the action locally will be with legislative seats.

In the state Senate, Manatee neatly falls within District 21, represented by Sen. Jim Boyd, R-Bradenton. Sarasota just as cozily falls entirely within District 23, where Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, serves. Both senators would likely keep these districts as if they had their way, and as chairman of the Republican Party of Florida I suspect Gruters will get a lot of things he wants out of redistricting. But either county would likely be well served doubling

Something worth keeping an eye on just outside the district will be the population growth in St. Petersburg, particularly its Midtown area. Rep. Michele Rayner-Goolsby, the only Democrat representing this region, hails from Pinellas County, as will always be the case with District 70 (or whatever number befalls it next year). But right now her community snakes through Manatee and Sarasota grabbing every minority neighborhood along the way. But there’s a good chance the district will be more compact. That means Democratic strongholds will have to shift either to districts represented by Reps. Tommy Gregory or Fiona McFarland.

The latter would be hugely consequential. The district is already one of the most competitive in Southwest Florida. Before McFarland won it in a good tear for Florida Republicans in 2020, Democrat Margaret Good ran and won there twice in a 10-month period in 2018. No one in the term limit era has represented the district eight years in a row. So will the Republican legislature risk putting more Democrats in this district? If they don’t, it could be something challenged by Democrats as a violation of Florida’s Fair Districts amendment.

Then again, if those minority communities stay in a jurisdiction represented by a minority lawmaker like Rayner-Goolsby, there may be less hunger to go to court. For all the finger-pointing about gerrymandering. Its notable that heavy majority districts in Florida were first born of a strange bedfellows alliance between NAACP leaders and Republican leaders in the early 1990s.

That’s just one of the many complicated issues that needs to be worked out when lawmakers convene next year, and why the process of drawing lines on a map never proves to be as simple as it sounds. Will there be shenanigans? Almost certainly. Will maps end up in courts? Honestly, regardless. But even the most egregious gerrymanders could still be in place for an election cycle or two.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.