The race for Sarasota County Commission in District 2 just got significantly more interesting.

Former Sarasota Mayor Fredd Atkins, the first Black Commissioner in city history, joined the race on the Democratic side two years after county commissioners rather maliciously drew him out of a district where he had been filed to run. He joins a primary with sitting City Commissioner (and former Mayor) Hagen Brody and beach activist Mike Cosentino. All vie for the chance this fall to take on incumbent County Commissioner Christian Ziegler, presuming the Republican runs for a second term.

I must admit as a member of the press, reporters are salivating. For one, this is the first time there’s been a high-stakes Democratic primary in contemporary times. Sure there’s been interesting fights for nonpartisan offices like City Commission and School Board. But to have a closed primary with folks jockeying for credibility on the left? This hasn’t happened in Sarasota County since Dwight Eisenhower was president. On top of that, every candidate here is delightfully colorful with a long list of well-known strengths and flaws. At the end of the rainbow of deep blue infighting is a genuine toss-up in the fall.

Yes, I said toss-up. A look at voter registration numbers in District 2 should dispel the notion this race will be a slam-dunk for the Democratic nominee. But there’s also little doubt why Ziegler wanted so badly to get rid of single-member districts before running for a second term. Colleagues truly did leave him to the wolves — or more appropriately to the donkeys — to fend for himself in a seat that leans blue. Still, it’s hardly unwinnable, especially for an incumbent in a climate that appears good for Republicans overall.

As of April 1, the Sarasota County Supervisor of elections reports District 2 was home to 25,632 active Democrats and 23,708 active Republicans. There’s another 17,246 independent and third-party voters as well. That works out to 38.5% Democrats in the active voter pool compared to 35.6% Republicans, or roughly a 3-percentage-point edge.

That’s a good environment for Atkins, Brody or whoever bears the Democratic standard in the fall. Certainly it’s better to run a district race than for any Democrat to have to fight in a county where 43% of active voters countywide are Republican compared to 29.3% who are Democrats.

But there’s some asterisks that have to be put on the edge. The numbers would be greater for Dems but for the fact inactive voters, ones at risk of falling off the polls, break even more Democratic in the district. About 37.9% of inactive voters in the seat are (or were) registered Democrat, and 30.4% are Republicans. 

Also, enthusiastic registration of new voters continues to favor Republicans across the board, including in District 2. Last April, Democrats made up just shy of 40% of registered voters in the district. A near 5-percentage-point advantage was nearly cut in half over the last 12 months. A gap of 2,950 voters dropped to 1,924. Between the voters Democrats lose and the ones Republicans continue to gain, the district becomes more purple by the day.

Now consider the potential ramifications of a nasty primary. Anyone who believes there's no risk of divisiveness in an Atkins-Brody race hasn’t met either candidate. Mix in the national dynamic of an unpopular Democratic president and a party out of power who wants to turn all its voters out for the midterms and Ziegler doesn’t seem so doomed.

That’s not to talk up the incumbent’s chances. The sharply partisan rhetoric that defined his career wasn’t built for swing seats. A Republican the other day grumbled to me about Ziegler’s rhetoric about his “woke” critics during continued controversy over incentives being awarded to Rumble. He’s on Twitter every day touting Donald Trump and attacking public education.

Bottom line, every candidate has their case. Every one has their flaws. And nobody should plan to pop the champagne early on Election Day.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA. 

Image courtesy Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections: District 2 party demographics.

From day one, we are preparing our students at New College of Florida to enter the competitive workforce—with everything from personalized career coaching to networking opportunities and leadership training.

One of our most exciting initiatives is our Certificate in Leadership: Liberal Arts Work in the Real World program, which was launched early last year by our Center for Career Engagement and Opportunity (CEO).

Since its inception, the certificate program has invited multiple professionals to New College for “campus conversations,” giving our students a firsthand glimpse of what leadership looks like. For example, Target CEO Brian Cornell visited New College in mid-March to share leadership lessons with our students during an in-depth, in-person discussion. 

“Our leadership certificate offers students the ability to connect with varying levels of leadership on an intimate basis,” says Patricia Courtois, one of New College’s Professionals in Residence, and the head instructor and coordinator of the certificate program. “The lessons learned through those dialogues can be applied not only during their time at New College but also as they begin to explore potential career paths and engage in the community after they graduate.”

Courtois knew Cornell would be an ideal speaker for the program, having worked with him in the mid-1990s at Tropicana. Cornell talked quite a bit at New College about overcoming business challenges brought on by the pandemic, giving our students excellent insights about strategy and resilience. 

Some of the other workshops and talks in the certificate program have included “Collaboration Through Teamwork” with Art Lambert, co-founder of S-One Holdings Corporation; “Creativity Works Everywhere” with David Bonner, the chief creative officer at On Ideas; “Leadership Exists at Any Level” with Jeff Lundy, Ph.D., a New College alumnus and the senior director of public policy development, data and analytics for PepsiCo; and “Effecting Change in the Workplace” with Felice Schulaner, a New College alumna, coach and retired human resources executive.

Courtois’ ability to teach our students about leadership—and to bring in outside experts in numerous industries—gives our students at New College a major competitive edge.

Students who aim to earn the Certificate in Leadership participate in four 90-minute workshops in a given semester (led by Courtois and chosen guest facilitators), and participate in a practical experience such as an internship or research project. During this process, students from all areas of concentration gain the skills and insights needed to make a meaningful impact in the world.

“We discuss everything from creativity to collaboration to effecting change, all through a lens of our participating students and their own passions and career goals,” Courtois says. “I enjoy providing my take on how I’ve learned to fail forward. Also, the unique culture of New College and its students inspires me.” 

Courtois has spent more than 40 years leading communications and corporate philanthropy efforts for companies and brands such as Beatrice Foods Company, Sara Lee Corporation, Tropicana, Sweet’n Low, Butter Buds, Sugar in the Raw and ClosetMaid. She has also been mentoring students for decades.

“It’s been a long and rewarding journey, helping students navigate the world outside the lecture hall,” Courtois says. “The best reward for me is when I see students I’ve mentored move on for new and more challenging experiences/jobs. I still get ‘thank you’ notes from people who remind me that I had some role in their success.”  

Dwayne Peterson, executive director for career education at New College, says all of the College’s students have the capacity to become leaders; they just need the optimal tools. The Certificate in Leadership is a prime example of one.

“We could argue that all New College students are leaders. But part of this certificate program is about trying to bring out and practice the leadership ability that lives in each New College student,” Peterson says. “Our students are collecting leadership approaches through these experiences, and really figuring out how to develop their own approaches that will serve them in their careers.”

We look forward to inviting many more high-powered leaders to our campus, as they encourage our students to develop—and pursue—their ambitious career goals.

Patricia Okker, Ph.D. is the president of New College of Florida. 

Photo of Patricia Courtois