Are political coattails a thing of the past? It’s clear U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio hopes so. At his first Senate debate with Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, Rubio spent about as much time going after Republican nominee Donald Trump as he did his opponent.

That’s not to say Murphy got a pass. When Murphy challenged Rubio on his infamous absenteeism, Rubio countered that he accomplished more as a senator than Murphy had over the past two years in the House and suggested the congressman had done little more than sign letters. But Rubio also said he didn’t trust Donald Trump any more than he trusted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. He didn’t put distance between himself and Trump so much as he long-jumped away doing everything short of withdrawing his endorsement, and even then cleverly deflecting that he would have done that had Trump done “the things” Clinton has done.

But where does that leave the race come Nov. 8? Our senator clearly hopes for a resurgence in a voter behavior not seen since, well, the last time a Clinton was in the White House. He expects ballot-splitting this November.

For those not ancient enough to remember such a practice, it was all the rage in the 1990s. Voters would vote one party into the White House and other into lower offices like senator and congressman. The last time it really happened in a meaningful way was probably the year 2000. Florida voters were in the game that year, comfortably electing Bill Nelson to his first Senate term while (just barely) delivering George W. Bush the state’s electoral votes and keys to the White House. But every presidential election since then, the party that won the presidency also picked up seats in Congress.

With most models predicting Clinton will win her contest, Rubio has decided to go it alone. It’s no surprise, since he delivered some of the best zingers against Trump while running against him in the GOP’s presidential primary. But it’s also risky, since Rubio couldn’t outperform Trump in the primary even in his home state, the same turf he is fighting for today.

Democrats, of course, would very much like Clinton’s coattails to remain as strong as President Obama’s proved to be in his 2008 landslide. During a speech in Miami Thursday where Obama talked up Murphy as much as Clinton and attacked Rubio as often as Trump, the sitting Democrat-in-chief scoffed at how Rubio could endorse Trump while running from him. While the two Republicans won’t campaign together, Obama still hopes they can lose campaigns together.

Yet, there is every reason to believe Rubio could be right. Revered analyst site FiveThirtyEight.com found evidence earlier this month that as Trump fell behind in debate season, and especially after the embarrassing tape we’ve all heard surfaced, battleground Senate races started to break a little for Republicans. The site noted Rubio has led every poll taken of the Senate race since summer.

It will still be close. A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday shows Rubio leading by 2 percent, within the margin of error. The RealClearPolitics aggregate of all public polls shows Rubio up by 4.8 points.

In contrast, Trump hasn’t won a statewide poll here since before the debates. The RCP average shows Clinton win a 3.8-point aggregate lead, and the same Quinnipiac showing Rubio with a slight edge shows Clinton winning by a 4-point margin.

Anything could happen between today and Election Day, of course, but it seems likely Florida will award Rubio a second term as it denies Trump a first.