When news broke a special election would be held in state House District 72, the outcome seemed forgone. Before most learned state Rep. Alex Miller would resign, Republican James Buchanan announced he would end his candidacy in a neighboring district and instead run for this open seat. Republican leaders exuded immediate confidence. One suggested this would mean a cleaner election cycle, with Buchanan avoiding a primary with a solid opponent in Bradenton.

But now the Sarasota area election seems anything but certain. Democrat Margaret Good proved to be an outstanding fundraiser, and Friday night announced she now has more money than any candidate in the race, with a stunning $541,701 through Feb. 8, including $257,058 in cash donations the last month. That's compared to Buchanan's $475,099 and Libertarian Alison Foxall's $30,847 (itself a record for Libertarian state House candidates in Florida). A political committee backing Good raised another $185,000. She now has national figures like former Vice President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate Martin O’Malley helping her campaign. On top of that, Foxall’s campaign leaned heavily on business issues, making it likely she erodes Buchanan’s support more than Good’s. Honestly, it likely will take a tremendous Election Day push by Republicans to save this seat from a flip Tuesday.

Why? It’s true more registered Republicans than Democrats already cast mail-in or early votes—315 more as of the end of early voting Friday with 25,969 votes cast. Yet Democrats so far outperfromed in early voting. Plus, stalwart Republicans don’t populate greater Sarasota the way they do Venice and Englewood. Voters in District 72 show a capacity, even a propensity, to split ballots.

Look how voters acted in the election when Republican Miller won this seat in November 2016. Then, Miller won with 50,468 votes, more than 14,000 more than deeply flawed Democrat Ed James, a 16-percentage-point lead. More importantly, she also won more votes than Donald Trump won for president here—nearly 3,000 more. Trump won the district by 4.5 percent. By comparison, in Venice-based District 73, when Republican Julio Gonzalez easily won re-election with 58,502 votes, Trump picked up about 1,500 more votes than that. It’s conceivable nearly every Gonzalez voter backed Trump, but impossible that every Miller voter did the same.

Mix that info with data from a StPetePolls survey showing Buchanan with a three-point lead among likely voters but Good with a 17-point lead among those who cast ballots before Jan. 23. That showed Good winning 53.6 percent of the independent vote, with Buchanan getting 34.3 percent. Republicans need to change those trends by Tuesday in order to win, especially since the survey showed Good getting a higher percentage of Republican votes than Buchanan did Democratic ones.

How did we get here? Buchanan early on ran a conservative (lower-case ‘c’) campaign, relying on name recognition and Republican loyalty to carry the day. That’s not a terrible strategy, mind you. The Republican Party of Sarasota claims hands-down the best get-out-the-vote machine on the Gulf Coast. But with an unpopular Republican president in the White House and voters thirsty for change, that may not be enough.

Buchanan in the last weeks of the campaign made up ground for sure. He did a televised debate with Good and Foxall after realizing his early strategy of sitting debates out only resulted in free media for his opponents. He did better than expected at the debate, though he did not win. Rather, he and Good under the TV lights at ABC-7 looked about equally competent, aggressive and uncomfortable. Foxall proved the most capable in front of cameras, however low her chances of victory may be.

Meanwhile, Good doesn’t shine in media settings but excels on the trail, rallying troops for major canvassing events. Is that enough? To use an Olympics metaphor, imagine Good as a speed skater in the 3,000-meters who started half a lap behind. She has to outpace her opponent, not merely do well. But the advantage she’s got is the ability to sneak up from behind. Data suggests she’s already caught up. The question is whether Buchanan can now kick into gear in time to win this race.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ Media Group.