Sweat The Small Seats

Under The Hood

Democrats long struggled to motivate their own voters to the polls. Studies show Democrats less likely to vote in the rain, and basic election data shows them less likely to vote in sunny weather either.  It’s why despite having a significant registration edge in Florida for decades, the state elected Republican governors the last six consecutive elections. Turnout for Democrats goes up higher in presidential years, but in 2020 Democrats failed to win Florida despite outnumbering Republicans by six figures in registrations.

They also can’t see past the top of the ballot. It’s how the state has long been one of the most competitive battlegrounds in presidential elections, where the state has gone blue three of the last seven times, but maintains a GOP-dominated Legislature.

But what’s happening with this year’s presidential results shows precisely why such tunnel vision on the part of Democratic voters — and frankly the Democratic Party itself — creates vulnerability at all levels up to the White House. For those who stopped tracking the election after media outlets projected Joe Biden the winner more than a month ago, Donald Trump’s legal team waged a massive effort to overturn results (his word, not mine).

Without getting into the legal particulars of the case, actually brought forward by the Texas Attorney General with Trump's team filing a brief in support, it's the proposed solution that should give Democrats pause. The suit aims to not to award Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan's votes to Trump but to deny them to Biden. That would still leave Biden up in electoral votes, but with both candidates under the needed 270 to win. That would most likely kick the decision to state Legislatures or to Congressional Delegations, basically to entities controlled by Republicans. 

Which brings us back to Democrats’ lousy history of voting for anyone but president. Democrats won the White House while losing legislative seats nationwide. That includes a state Senate seat and five state House seats in Florida, one of the latter here in Sarasota. That’s partly because so much focus went on winning Florida for Biden. The result? Less power in Tallahassee and the distinction as one of three states in the nation where Biden in 2020 underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But would it have even mattered if Biden won here? What if Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, as he has recommended other states do, asked the Legislature to prepare a slate of Republican electors even if Biden won the popular vote? When The Atlantic floated that plan before Election Day, Sen. Joe Gruters, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, called the notion “preposterous” and a “scare tactic” from a Trump-hating media. How would he vote on the matter, though, as a legislator in a red chamber faced with a slate of blue electors?

DeSantis boasted Florida this year shed the ghost of 2000’s contested election. I might suggest we were only blessed to have an election decided outside the recount margin. That and the fact that Biden as the overall winner hasn’t wasted resources trying to prove voter fraud in red states.

There’s reason for pearl clutching and screeds about existential threats to democracy. But if Democrats spend all their time wagging fingers and none self-reflecting, they will miss their own failings.  Election results this year left Florida vulnerable to malfeasance. Democrats in Tallahassee would be helpless to stop funny business with its electors if Trump sought the remedy for losing Florida that he’s pursued in every other swing state he lost.

Meanwhile, Democrats in Tallahassee remain in the wilderness on every substantive legislative matter that will be discussed in the Capitol. That’s not changing two years from now if no one can muster enthusiasm for more than the Governor’s race, or worse, if the party doesn’t bother engaging voters again until 2024.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.

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