Image courtesy Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections: District 2 party demographics.

The race for Sarasota County Commission in District 2 just got significantly more interesting.

Former Sarasota Mayor Fredd Atkins, the first Black Commissioner in city history, joined the race on the Democratic side two years after county commissioners rather maliciously drew him out of a district where he had been filed to run. He joins a primary with sitting City Commissioner (and former Mayor) Hagen Brody and beach activist Mike Cosentino. All vie for the chance this fall to take on incumbent County Commissioner Christian Ziegler, presuming the Republican runs for a second term.

I must admit as a member of the press, reporters are salivating. For one, this is the first time there’s been a high-stakes Democratic primary in contemporary times. Sure there’s been interesting fights for nonpartisan offices like City Commission and School Board. But to have a closed primary with folks jockeying for credibility on the left? This hasn’t happened in Sarasota County since Dwight Eisenhower was president. On top of that, every candidate here is delightfully colorful with a long list of well-known strengths and flaws. At the end of the rainbow of deep blue infighting is a genuine toss-up in the fall.

Yes, I said toss-up. A look at voter registration numbers in District 2 should dispel the notion this race will be a slam-dunk for the Democratic nominee. But there’s also little doubt why Ziegler wanted so badly to get rid of single-member districts before running for a second term. Colleagues truly did leave him to the wolves — or more appropriately to the donkeys — to fend for himself in a seat that leans blue. Still, it’s hardly unwinnable, especially for an incumbent in a climate that appears good for Republicans overall.

As of April 1, the Sarasota County Supervisor of elections reports District 2 was home to 25,632 active Democrats and 23,708 active Republicans. There’s another 17,246 independent and third-party voters as well. That works out to 38.5% Democrats in the active voter pool compared to 35.6% Republicans, or roughly a 3-percentage-point edge.

That’s a good environment for Atkins, Brody or whoever bears the Democratic standard in the fall. Certainly it’s better to run a district race than for any Democrat to have to fight in a county where 43% of active voters countywide are Republican compared to 29.3% who are Democrats.

But there’s some asterisks that have to be put on the edge. The numbers would be greater for Dems but for the fact inactive voters, ones at risk of falling off the polls, break even more Democratic in the district. About 37.9% of inactive voters in the seat are (or were) registered Democrat, and 30.4% are Republicans. 

Also, enthusiastic registration of new voters continues to favor Republicans across the board, including in District 2. Last April, Democrats made up just shy of 40% of registered voters in the district. A near 5-percentage-point advantage was nearly cut in half over the last 12 months. A gap of 2,950 voters dropped to 1,924. Between the voters Democrats lose and the ones Republicans continue to gain, the district becomes more purple by the day.

Now consider the potential ramifications of a nasty primary. Anyone who believes there's no risk of divisiveness in an Atkins-Brody race hasn’t met either candidate. Mix in the national dynamic of an unpopular Democratic president and a party out of power who wants to turn all its voters out for the midterms and Ziegler doesn’t seem so doomed.

That’s not to talk up the incumbent’s chances. The sharply partisan rhetoric that defined his career wasn’t built for swing seats. A Republican the other day grumbled to me about Ziegler’s rhetoric about his “woke” critics during continued controversy over incentives being awarded to Rumble. He’s on Twitter every day touting Donald Trump and attacking public education.

Bottom line, every candidate has their case. Every one has their flaws. And nobody should plan to pop the champagne early on Election Day.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.

Image courtesy Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections: District 2 party demographics.