Has Sarasota gone deep red? The best test may come in a state House district encompassing the solid blue City of Sarasota and more reliably red parts of south county.

House District 73 is poised for a rematch between state Rep. Fiona McFarland, R-Sarasota, and Democratic teacher Derek Reich. That may not seem a great political barometer, considering she beat him last year in a 56% to 44% rout. Yet, there’s reason to think the election could be closer this go.

For a second, let’s look at the situation in the brightest of blue lights for Democrats.

First off, Reich last year looked unquestionably green. He drowned a few months after filing in a race where no one knew the political boundaries until well into 2022 thanks to redistricting. Given this reality statewide, the Florida Democratic Party didn’t put effort into House races outside seats they already held. Reich didn’t know how to set up a political committee when he entered the race, and only figured it out a little before the election.

He still has some $4,400 in the committee now, which isn’t much, but Reich at least knows fundamentally how to run a campaign. Plus, he met the important money-summoning Democrats in town, like former Congressional candidate Christine Jennings. 

Reich believes Democrats feel energized, especially after DeSantis vetoed Sarasota spending heavily and screwed around with the New College board. “It is much easier to fundraise with what Ron DeSantis has done in Florida and what Fiona McFarland has enabled,” Reich said.

Then there’s the district. While the House District 72 that elected Democratic state Rep. Margaret Good in a nationally watched rout is gone, this seat in many ways looks bluer. Voters in the district split almost evenly in the 2020 presidential election, going to Donald Trump over Joe Biden but a 49.7% to 49.34% margin, the closest of any in the state.

But let’s not get carried away. Switching and looking through red-rose glasses, Republicans, and McFarland specifically, hold justified confidence.

"There's a reason Fiona's margin of victory has grown in every election she's been in — people trust her, people respect her and people believe in her,” said early McFarland consultant Max Goodman. “I fully expect this trend line to continue in 2024.”

McFarland is a proven two-term incumbent who flipped the seat back to red in 2020. She also knows the political committee game well. Her Friends of Sarasota sits on over $200,000 cash in addition to some $29,000 in her regular account. And if a hint of trouble creeps onto the horizon, she can snap her fingers and attract more contributions.

As for that district make-up? In 2022, two years after voters split evenly on president, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis took the seat by 12 percentage points, about the same margin as McFarland, and GOP Sen. Marco Rubio won it by almost 10. As of November, registered Republicans in the district outnumbered Democrats by about 13,000. Sarasota County is home to the second Republican Party of Florida chair in a row. The state GOP has continued to make gains on Democrats statewide and locally.

Was McFarland last year riding the coattails of a popular Governor? Maybe, but he was popular for a reason. The pandemic caused a national geographic relocation of voters that greatly benefited Florida Republicans, and nothing has occurred yet to effectively reverse that trend. If anything, watching DeSantis flail on the national stage now reinforces the notion Florida has become far more conservative than the country as a whole— good news for GOP incumbents.

McFarland holds the clear, early edge. But this is a famously swingy region. Keep an eye on returns to see if that has changed.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA. 

Photo: Fiona McFarland, Derek Reich.

The list of interested buyers in all price points in the Sarasota Real Estate Market continues to grow. Inventory and interest rates create the heaviest headwind in meeting the demand. However, for those prepared to strike when they find the property that ticks all their “wants” including location, condition, renovation or rebuild required, closing timeframe, etc. they are ready to make a move as soon as new properties come on the market. The majority of these are cash buyers in the high-end market, so in the low- and mid-market price point where most buyers require mortgages, things are moving a little more slowly due to high rates.

Buyers are back in the driver seat now that the go-go days during the pandemic have passed. In the luxury and ultra-luxury class of properties, inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels. That means that sellers need to get back to making necessary repairs before listing and be prepared for contingencies in contracts again.

Despite the growing listings pace, the months of supply of luxury inventory is 4.5 months, which is still below the threshold of at least 6 months of properties for sale to reach a balanced market. The pipeline of buyers for me and my other brokers who operate in the upper tier of the market has many ready, willing, and able clients. I see our market maintaining steady sales and moderate price appreciation in the months ahead.

The seasonality of sales has been somewhat disrupted as so many would-be buyers haven’t yet found their new property in Sarasota and are staying active in their search. Though there were more buyers in the area during the traditionally busier spring season, eager buyers with cash offers are still looking for their ideal home. The pace of properties going under contract in the luxury tier since the start of 2023 is 225% higher than same period in 2019 and nearly twice the total year-to-date in 2021. This data leads me to believe that we will continue to see steady sales ahead.

Sale prices have been holding steady this year with a decelerated appreciation pace. A recent Wall Street Journal said, “High-end home sales have fallen back to earth” after the COVID fueled fervor around the country. However, while some parts of the country are experiencing price declines, in Sarasota luxury prices remain elevated by more than 4% year-over-year, and up 23% from 2019.

The National Association of Realtors is projecting U.S. prices to remain flat or lower in some areas of the country through the balance of this year, and growth of 2.6% in 2024. Most economic experts believe interest rates will fall to 5.5% by the end of 2023, which many hope will spur activity in the entry and mid-level markets, as well as new listings of existing homes from those sitting with 3-5% mortgages.

Limited resale inventory continues to bolster Home Builder confidence. Over the last year builders had to resort to offering incentives and lowering prices when the pace of sales slowed as interest rates increased so significantly. But that has nearly stopped because of the supply vacuum in existing homes, forcing more buyers into the new homes market. Unfortunately, due to cost, supply, labor, interest rates, and lack of affordable land for development, entry level new home construction will continue to lag well behind demand leaving an ever-growing lack of options for first-time homebuyers.

As we return to a more typical level of inventory offering buyers more choices, our region will be closer to what market experts call normalized conditions. This should bring a closing of the gap between seller and buyer expectations and keep price appreciation in check. If you are a potential seller, I strongly recommend that you review what you will need to do to prepare your property for sale and consider listing now – before we begin to see a slowing of the list-to-sale periods, as well as more buyer demands as options become more widely available.

With plenty of active buyers seeking properties in the Sarasota Real Estate Market, I remain confident that demand for high quality and well-located Sarasota homes and condominiums will keep our sales on a similar course for the foreseeable future.

Michael Moulton is a Realtor with Michael Saunders and Company. 

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