The Florida Legislature will convene again in just over a week. Republicans still hold super-majorities in both chambers, and nobody should expect a radical departure from conservative lawmaking seen in the past few legislative sessions. But it will be curious this year how independent lawmakers will choose to be from the executive branch.

In the past few months, several lawmakers, though none from the Sarasota-Bradenton region, shifted political endorsements away from Gov. Ron DeSantis and to former President Donald Trump. Leaving aside whatever any specific voter thinks about either of those men, it’s an interesting development.

Most political observers in Florida assumed a massive out-of-the-gate loyalty to DeSantis among state lawmakers was as much about a defensive posture against the veto pen as it was about any particular love of the Governor. Anyone who needs evidence such fears were based in reality needs to look only at the number of member projects sponsored by Trump-supporting state Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, that DeSantis slashed from the budget.

I’ve heard folks loyal to both Republican presidential contenders that the visceral fear of retribution has started to fade along with DeSantis’ presidential ambitions. If DeSantis’ star sets completely after the Iowa caucuses, anticipate a Legislature that decides it can lead far more independently than it did in 2023. Then DeSantis entered session months after a landslide re-election and pushed the Legislature to effectively craft his presidential policy platform in the form of state law.

But in what way will the Legislature act that’s different than in the past? It’s still an overwhelmingly conservative body, so nobody should expect a new embrace of gun control or abortion access. But an interesting study released this month by The Institute of Legislative Analysis helped highlight the various ways political leaders define conservatism, and showed how the Legislature has upheld such principles and where it has fallen far short.

The conservative think tank graded the nation’s state legislatures and governors this year and gave Florida high marks on protecting individual liberties, while suggesting the Sunshine State struggled on deregulation and free market principles. 

On DeSantis in particular, the organization gave the governor a 100% on local and national security for being tougher on crime than the Legislature wanted, but gave him just a 33% on tax and fiscal policy, lower than the Legislature’s 42%. Both the legislative and executive branch scored only about a 50% on regulations. Remember, this is a right-wing group, so don’t think this makes Florida Republicans out as secret leftists. But it’s a reminder that the governor’s war on Disney and heavy hand on agriculture don’t play that well with free marketeers on the national stage.

But of note, certain Florida lawmakers earned high marks for their own legislative records as graded by the group. The Institute honored 47 state officials with “Defender of Limited Government” awards for scoring about 80% or higher on the report card. State Reps. Tommy Gregory, R-Lakewood Ranch (79.6%), and Will Robinson, R-Bradenton (80.6%), both made that list, as did state Rep. Michael Grant, R-Port Charlotte (79.6%).

State Rep. Mike Beltran, R-Riverview (79.4%), nearly made the cut. No lawmakers living or chiefly representing Sarasota County did. State Rep. James Buchanan, R-Venice (75.6%) came in short. State Rep. Fiona McFarland, R-Sarasota, was notably on maternity leave much of the 2023 session and had too few graded votes to be issued a score.

Members of the Florida Senate fared worse, with state Sen. Jim Boyd, R-Bradenton, earning shy of 74%, and state Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, pulling in just a 71.9%.

Now, various things weigh down scores. Support for environmental regulations is critical to this coastal community, and local lawmakers will likely happily take a hit in scores with a national group to protect communities in ways voters rightly demand. But the scorecards show there’s solid, ideological arguments for breaking free this year of DeSantis’ policy stranglehold.

Moving away from economic policies driven primarily by retribution instead of the public good would be a good start.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA. 

For the third consecutive month, sales of homes and condominiums in The Sarasota Real Estate Market has grown considerably over the prior year. In the luxury tier, properties selling for more than $1 million were 53% higher in the last 90-days than the same period in 2022.

While there have been several months in 2023 where luxury property transactions had much more modest growth and even declined, the region appears to be on track to exceed 2022’s annual high-end sales by more than 10%. Recently Michael Saunders released the company’s 3rd quarter market update, and I thought my readers would find it informative. Click here to read this comprehensive report.

The chart above shows how the improving inventory levels are affecting sales and pending sales in the price points over $1 million.

Before the end of the year, 149 condos in the new Bayso project in the Quay Commons district are being released for occupancy. The units are averaging around $1.5 million. 35 units closed in November, and many more will be reflected in December’s sales data. It shows what an extraordinary difference a single project can have on the Sarasota Real Estate Market. Additional projects underway in the Downtown Sarasota core, as well as The St. Regis Residences on Longboat Key, will have further impact in the year to come.

The inventory of existing homes and condos remains well below the recognized point of equilibrium for available properties to meet buyer demand. The recent increase in the pace of new listings is a welcome event and I expect the growth as shown in the Trendgraphix data will continue, leading to the prospect of a strong spring season.

Buyers and sellers in most other price points are highly motivated by movement in mortgage interest rates, which will also likely lead to increased activity in both the existing and new homes markets. The vast majority of mortgage holders have rates at 5% or below, and experts believe that with an anticipated reduction of 1-2% over this next year, it is expected the housing markets across the country will see more growth.

The homebuilder sentiment, as surveyed by the National Home Builders Association each month, continues to grow. Builders, especially in highly desirable areas such as ours, are taking advantage of the lack of supply in the existing homes market. Further encouragement for homebuilders is seen in last month’s sales volume. 31% of the nation’s homes sold were new construction – this is a significant contrast to the historical average of 12%.

Recently, Fannie Mae in partnership with Pulsenomics, performed the Home Price Expectations Survey. The poll of more than 100 housing experts is used for forecasting national home price changes over the upcoming five years.

The Q4 2023 report noted that the mean expectations are for an annual growth of 3.8% over the next five years. The most optimistic quartile of the surveyed panelists is projecting an average of 5.7% annual growth. There have been many prospective buyers who have been waiting for a measurable drop in prices. If you are in that group, 2024 appears to be your time to take action, as the pace of appreciation is expected to increase in 2025 and beyond.

As we near the busy winter and spring selling seasons, those considering bringing their property to market need to begin the process of finding a seasoned real estate professional, have them give you an assessment of potential pricing and improvements to consider prior to listing, as this can take some time to accomplish.

Buying and selling homes this season will take some strategy, since inventory of existing homes and condos is still tight compared to historical levels. As new listings come on the market there are many eager buyers waiting to jump at a property that can meet most of their wish list. Buyers need to be prepared to communicate their “must haves”, “nice to have”, and “bonus haves” to their Realtor so that they can alert you as soon as something lists that checks most of your boxes.

Michael Moulton is a Realtor with Michael Saunders and Company.